ABSTRACT
Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for both populations and healthcare systems are vast. In addition to morbidity and mortality from COVID-19, the pandemic also has disrupted local health systems, including reductions or delays in routine vaccination services and catch-up vaccination campaigns that could lead to outbreaks of other infectious diseases that result in an additional burden of disease and strain on the healthcare system. We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia's routine childhood immunization program in 2020 using multiple sources of data. We relied on district-level administrative vaccination coverage data and Zambia's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey to project disruptions to routine childhood vaccination within the pandemic year 2020 (N=5,670). Next, we leveraged serological data to predict age-specific measles seroprevalence and assessed the impact of changes in vaccination coverage on measles outbreak risk in each district. We found minor disruptions to routine administration of measles-rubella and pentavalent vaccines in 2020. This was in part due to Zambia's Child Health Week held in June of 2020 which helped to reach children missed during the first six months of the year. We estimated that the two-month delay in a measles-rubella vaccination campaign, originally planned for September of 2020 but conducted in November of 2020 as a result of the pandemic, had little impact on modeled district-specific measles outbreak risks. The pandemic only minimally increased the number of children missed by measles-rubella and pentavalent vaccines in 2020. However, the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission since our analysis concluded means efforts to maintain routine immunization services and minimize the risk of measles outbreaks will continue to be critical. Fortunately, the methodological framework developed in this analysis relied on routinely collected data and can be used to evaluate COVID-19 pandemic disruptions in Zambia following 2020 and in other countries or for other vaccines at a sub-national level.